Think of Your Stocks Like Real Estate

This past week, I was considering buying a home near my parents so that when I was back in area, I would have a place from which to work and live. With the real estate market falling to 2004 prices, on average, it seemed a good time to buy (value investing is not limited to stocks – it’s a business philosophy). Anyway, I made an opening offer roughly 10.6% below the list price, which was more than reasonable given the current economic environment, the fact that I don’t need a property per se, and my outlook for real estate values over the next five to ten years.

The owners of the property came back with their counteroffer, but refused to budge much. They had in mind a price that they thought appropriate for the property based upon their own analysis of the comparable sales in the neighborhood. They determined that based upon their own financial needs that they couldn’t afford to sell their asset for the price the market was currently indicating it was worth; indeed, they demanded the same appreciation that had been the rule for the past twenty years, not recognizing the new reality. That’s fine. That’s what I’ve been trying to teach you with the thousands of articles that have been published. Although I trust my own analysis (this is what I do for a living – valuing assets, buying them at attractive levels, and generating profit on those capital commitments), they had arrived at their own estimate of replacement value for the property. They will now either have to continue holding the real estate, wait for an offer that they think is more inline with their estimate of value, or be forced into a sale if they can’t hold out until the market recovers.

Now, here’s where most people make huge errors that cost them years, even decades, of wealth building effort. If they had owned a basket of stocks – say, shares of Wal-Mart, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, and U.S. Bancorp – and they had experienced a drop of 10% or 20%, let alone the 50% drubbing many equities have taken over the past year, it’s unlikely that these same people would apply a rational disposition to their portfolio like they did their house. They wouldn’t research the valuation of comparable businesses to each of those they owned, estimate what they think their share of those businesses was, and then refuse to sell (or better yet, buy more while it was cheap) until it reflected a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Instead, it’s likely that they would be more likely to sell the further prices fell because they trusted their neighbor’s estimate of what their property is worth instead of their own, cold, dispassionate calculation. I wrote you a few weeks ago and told you that if you were selling your 401(k) assets, people like me were out there buying them in the midst of all the fear. In a few years, you would wonder why we had gotten substantially richer.

The bottom line: You must assess all of the assets in your life based on their estimated intrinsic value. There’s nothing more irrational than saying, “My accounts are down $10,000 or $100,000 or $500,000! What do I do?” If you are invested in a broad-based, low-cost index fund, falling prices are good for you in the long run. That’s because the dividend yield on your portfolio will increase, allowing you to purchase more shares with your reinvested earnings. Your regular contributions will also purchase more shares. This is the secret to building equity, which is the surefire way to building wealth.